Bangkok:The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a global economic growth rate of 3.1 percent in 2026, an increase from its July estimate of 3 percent. This projection comes despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising energy costs, yet it remains lower than the growth rate of 3.5 percent recorded last year.
According to Oman News Agency, the World Economic Outlook report, released today during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok, outlines these forecasts. The IMF also maintains its projection for 2027 at a growth rate of 3.4 percent, consistent with its July estimates and slightly higher than the April forecasts by 0.2 percentage points.
The IMF attributes the modest improvement in growth projections to sustained strong investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. These investments have helped mitigate some negative impacts of rising energy prices and improved growth estimates for both advanced economies and countries involved in technology production chains.
The report highlights that countries like South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand have benefited from increased demand for devices and components essential for developing artificial intelligence technologies. This trend is also evident in advanced economies that develop platforms and infrastructure for AI technologies.
However, the report also points out a widening gap between economies tapping into AI investments and those left behind. Currently, 32 countries account for about 95 percent of global economic growth, down from 54 countries in the April estimates.
The IMF also noted that downward revisions to growth forecasts have become more prevalent, affecting approximately 47 percent of economies since the April forecasts, particularly impacting energy-importing countries not involved in AI-related value chains.
On inflation, the Fund projects a headline consumer price rate of 4.7 percent in 2026, decreasing to 4.1 percent in 2027. This projection considers ongoing upward price pressures linked to the AI investment boom.
The IMF further warned about the risks posed by rising public debt levels, especially in advanced economies. These risks include potential sharp increases in borrowing costs and the threat of weakened economic growth amid financial and geopolitical instability. It urged governments to avoid delaying necessary measures to rebuild reserves and establish credible medium-term plans to return public debt to sustainable levels.
